What you should know about Staking Strategies for the Australian Football Pools
Australian football is not at all like soccer, either in the purely physical sense, or in its organisation. It is generally accepted (and supported by statistics) that Australian football teams play closer to form than do teams in British soccer – for example, the range of playing standard between top and bottom teams in a league is quite wide leading to greater predictability.
First off, a basic fact about the statistics: Teams come and go (and change their names) very often in Australian football. A team may disappear for a season or two and then re-form. So, tracking teams in a statistics database can be quite a challenge.
Leagues
Digging at the statistics shows that some leagues have much higher standards than others, and in particular some leagues have much higher draw percentages than others (for example South Australia), whereas other leagues have a much lower percentage of draws. So, if you are playing the treble chance (draw games) then you bias your selections towards the leagues with higher draw rates – that is forecasting more draws in the upper half of the coupon. Obviously, this depends on using a suitable performance rating system to assess likely match outcomes, before introducing bias.
Home/Away/Draw Sequences
Win/lose/draw sequences can appear to be very strange. It is not at all unusual for a team losing at home to go win their next match (if it is an away). The numbers bear this out, but the explanations can be a bit difficult to fathom. One view is that this is because of the range of playing standards within given leagues.
